Everyone in the industry now seems to be trying to identify the most important changes taking place with communications, emphasizing the technology pieces that they provide. Here is the latest from Avaya which could use more detailed clarification as to what it will mean to both enterprise IT and enterprise users.
Very interesting list. Many are contact center driven, no surprise.
Others are close to the mark, but are still overly focused on voice communications.
Thanks, Art. Interesting list. Another one to compare, by Zeus, is from one of our favorite Canadians:http://nojitter.com/blog/archives/2009/12/whats_hot_and_w.htmlAny comments on this nugget:"CEBP and UC enabled applications will not be hot. This is another technology wave that will have a long adoption cycle. There will be a few verticals, such as healthcare and financial services, that will communications-enable some processes, but broader deployments will be limited until the ISV community gets more engaged in UC. This is one of the trends that the vendors are going to need to "prime the pump" and develop some processes and applications in concert with the ISV community to start the ball rolling. Once this happens, the momentum will create a "rising tide" that will initiate another wave of growth in this market."
Ah, so Avaya and Zeus completely disagree on CEBP - I go with Zeus on CEBP but lumping "CEBP and UC enabled apps" together is a bit of stretch - particularly since UC apps includes everything.
I think my 3 are better than their 10. But I might be biased. http://www.pindropsoup.com/2009/12/megatrends-in-voice.html
I like your three, as well, but they are, as you say, Megatrends, reaching into music, airlines, etc. Avaya’s are “micro-trends” in enterprise communications.
And, each supplier would likely have their own list, such as “Video-based collaboration will be the new standard.” (Guess who.)
As I mentioned in the podcast, video will become a growing component of UC deployments. It's hard to believe that telepony based video is now into its fifth decade since first introuced as Picturephone at the 1969 World's Fair (dating myself). But business video is finally beginning to emerge as mainstream with many flavors from desktop to Telepresence and certainly mobile video, too. The network and performance requirements for video being even more stringent than voice, will make the network infrastructure needs about full UC even more important and the user Quality of Experience (QoE) will be even more critical.
And we've seen major M&A interest with the pending acquisitions of Tandberg by Cisco and LifeSize by Logitech -- lots of dollars being invested in business video.
What is important to consider are not just the travel displacement opportunties from video but the improved functioning of business processes from well deployed video applications such as remote medical consults or executive/expert education and business meetings.
I have to also date myself to correct you about when Picturephone was demonstrated at the World’s Fair. Since I tried it there in New York, the year was 1964, not 1969. At that time I was involved in the first on line application developments that would highlight the role of the Internet and the World Wide Web. At that time it was called “time-sharing,” because it enabled interactive applications by sharing CPU time of a mainframe computer amongst different applications that had to be swapped in and out of main memory.
While there will always be a valid role for real-time video conferencing, face-to-face on-camera discussions are not always useful or convenient from a user “availability” perspective. Asynchronous exchange of information content will dominate UC because it is the easiest form of contact for both initiators and recipients. So, even if everyone has a mobile “smartphone” with a video camera in it, that doesn’t mean it will be used that much just for face-to-face conversation. However, it will be powerful for real-time exchanging of video information during a voice conversation, as you mentioned for medical consultations.
I agree with Mr. Rosenberg and Mr. Yedwab's comments. Would also add that IMO person-to-person video is going to sneak up and explode very soon. As everyone knows, combinations of bandwidth and CODECs have prevented any real mass adoption of P2P Video, but that has changed. Also, another component or impediment is the hardware / software clients. It's very difficult to certify and support software clients and PC cameras on each standard computer (Desk Top, Notebook, etc...), from a business enterprise perspective. That might lead one to think a dedicated hardware / software client is needed, but now the cost and end user exp will suffer as yet another peripheral (like the desk phone) is in the mix.
Also, consider the state of smartphones, IP Telephony Clients (Hard and Soft Phones) and the new market of Netbooks and Tablets. Smartphones and Tablets (thanks to Apple) are starting to evolve together. Netbooks are now sooo 2008, but if we define the difference between Netbooks and Tablets on whether or not a physical keyboard is present, then at some point these should merge. Dedicated hardware for a desktop phone "may" eventually go away, BUT just as the PC cannot replace a game console... People (desk-jockeys for sure) still prefer to have a hard phone desk use. AVAYA and Cisco have tried many times to make desk phones more useful by adding touch screens, USB ports and many other enhanced features, however a phone is a phone…until it isn’t.
That said, what if you took a Tablet (with WebOS or Android) and a companion docking station, and the device also included:
· LAN while on the docking station
· 3G/4G/WIFI while off the docking station
· Front-face video
· Voice and Video Clients (SIP based of course)
Cisco has already announced such a device based on Android. AVAYA is rumored to be working on one as well, and they just announced a partnership with HP (who also just bought Palm and WebOS) to co-develop UC products and services.
Bottom line: If you take the one hard client application the PC has not eliminated (the desk phone) and change the platform to a Tablet, then add video and basic office apps (e-mail, IM, web, etc…), you have a real chance of reducing the procurement and support cost for voice, video and real application mobility. Will a Tablet replace a PC (notebook or desktop)? For certain folk’s maybe, but most will still need their PC. That’s ok however, as you aren’t adding yet another peripheral to support. You’re actually eliminating or combining three different areas down to one, multi-function device.