Now that 2009 has concluded, we note the end of the decade of the 2000’s as well as the termination of a year. Many of the usual suspects have already blogged about their retrospectives of either the year or the decade. I’ll take the long 10 year view and hopefully will have something different to add to what you might have already read. For those involved in IT and telecom–especially telephony–2000 to 2009 was a wild ride.
Some of the highlights and lowlights of the decade for me were:
Y2K The world as we know it did not come to an end. Magically we (and our computers, our phone systems and other “intelligent” gear) learned to represent a year with 4 digits instead of 2. Mr. A. Soprano of North Caldwell, NJ, himself an iconic figure of the period, was pleased that things worked out. Do you have a problem with that?
VoIP (and SIP) Happened Voice over IP or IP Telephony, if you prefer, expanded significantly in the decade from a somewhat meager start. I recall that in those early days when the transition from PBX2000 to VoiceCon was occurring, there was much skepticism from the Business Communications Review crowd and others about the future of packetized voice. However, with the passage of time, market reality took hold. There is plenty of room for further VoIP expansion in numerous market segments as we enter the 201X’s, the journey and business opportunity is far from over. Along the way and beyond premises-based IP voice, SIP became established as the key de facto communications protocol standard for numerous purposes. Current activity and excitement about SIP trunking is a prime example of that.
Mobility and Smart Phones Really Happened The decade saw an explosion of cellular, wireless and smart phone growth. According to CTIA estimates, U.S. wireless subscribers nearly tripled in the period from 97M in 2000 to 277M in 2009, or about 90% of the population. By December 2008, texting (the glamorous pseudonym for prosaic Short Message Service) had grown to 110 Billion per month, a 10-fold jump in only 3 years. The Apple iPhone was and is a phenomenon adding to the momentum of the BlackBerry and other products driving users to the smart phone as the “ultimate mobility device”–cell phone, email/messaging, Internet access and library of apps. Smart phones now account for over 15% of mobile phone sales. According to some analyst reports they currently outsell notebook computers and within a year or two will outsell all PCs worldwide (more than 300M units annually). Moreover, the smart phone is evolving beyond personal use to be a key element in enterprise IT/telecom operations.
UC, Whatever It Is, Didn’t Happen Much–It Is In-Progress Unified Communications started to get significant attention in the second half of the decade. I consider UC capabilities to be logical next steps of a mostly IP network infrastructure for multiple communications modes and media, coupled with increased merging of once separate IT and telecom functions. But that’s pretty broad and that’s my personal slant on it. That’s exactly the problem with “UC” in reality–too global and hence too open to interpretation. And, yes, the economy tanked at the same time, making it more difficult to justify value-added upgrades. However, many vendors and others latched on to the label because it was “hot,” leading to UC as a somewhat empty marketing term. This was no doubt exacerbated by the industry itself bickering about the definition of it, thereby confusing everyone that much more. To some, UC is VoIP with some added bells and whistles; while to some UC purists, VoIP/voice is a vestige of earlier times that begrudgingly must be accommodated. Nonetheless, the promise of UC is real and the value-added and acceptance of its capabilities will become established over time as will the continued melding of IT and telecom.
Look Who the Voice Vendors are Now The major voice or telephone-related vendors of the current landscape include Cisco, Microsoft, IBM, Apple, and Google. How did that happen? Cisco was the major enterprise VoIP influence of the decade, and fundamentally reshaped the PBX market and its long-time inhabitants. Cisco conquered by acquisition, IT networking position and marketing acumen. Microsoft has been a telephony wannabe for a long time. Perhaps Steve Ballmer saw Cisco’s success and envisioned voice-related money on the table that could be captured by a different approach. The entire decade was, by the way, a transition period during which Microsoft was under Ballmer (a businessman) rather than founder Bill Gates (a software guy). At any rate, Microsoft has been the key driver in UC, launched the OCS (or “unPBX”) in 2006, and wheeled and dealed with most every major VoIP vendor. IBM is no stranger to the voice or PBX world, especially if one is old and cynical enough to recall IBM-Rolm in the 1980’s. Nowadays, VoIP is an important element of IBM’s Unified Communications and Collaboration strategy via, among other things, Sametime Unified Telephony which provides interoperability with IP-PBXs and other voice-oriented equipment.
The Apple iPhone, as mentioned, has been a transformational development. Why Apple? Why not? The iPhone is after all, a sophisticated hand-held computer. Finally, Google–there’s Google Voice, there’s Android mobile OS, and who knows what’s coming next?
But That’s Not All–Avaya-Nortel: Revenge of the Bellheads!?
What about the traditional (pre-2000) voice equipment and services suppliers? Have they all been supplanted by IT or Internet-centric competitors? Not quite yet, but they have morphed into VoIP and/or UC providers.
A milestone with particular meaning to me was the acquisition of the enterprise piece of Nortel by Avaya in late 2009. Avaya itself was spun off from Lucent Technologies in 2000, and it was the successor to the business communications (PBXs, Key Systems, et al) division of the original Bell System or AT&T. Nortel, formerly Northern Telecom, formerly Northern Electric, started as the equipment manufacturer for Bell Canada (itself partially owned by AT&T until 1956). Avaya, now with Nortel, is literally the last of the Bell legacy or what was called the “Bellheads” some 10 years ago. (Lucent lives on with Alcatel, but that’s in the central office space not the enterprise domain). Can Avaya make it against the “Netheads” (Cisco, Microsoft, IBM, etc.) as UC evolves and expands? As a one-time Bellhead myself, I’ll be watching with interest and some bias.
Happy New Year and Welcome to the Next Decade!