Unified Communications Directly Links to Gartner End User Predictions for 2010
This week, Gartner published “Gartner Top End User Predictions for 2010: Coping with the New Balance of Power” (see the report on scribd) which highlights nine major trends that will redefine and reshape IT (and communications), especially where related to the ultimate markets – the people of the world who are the End Users.
The report is focused on the implications for enterprise IT organizations, not specifically on communications, but the implications for communications are very clear and compelling. From my point of view, the trends and methods that are already visible in Unified Communications (UC) are right on target to address and capitalize on the key factors in these Predications. Here are the 9 Gartner headlines with short UC commentaries on each:
1. By 2012, 20% of businesses will own no IT assets. Yes, we are already seeing this trend in the hosted versions of UC. Today, companies can already get their Unified Conferencing – voice, web sharing, and video – from Microsoft (LiveMeeting, Office Communications Server, Exchange), Cisco (Webex), IBM (Web Dialog), Siemens (OpenScape server), and others. As UC is based on specific user communications needs, not large bundles of features as found in PBXs, it is very likely that UC will take advantage of this trend to capture a rapidly growing share of enterprise communications.
2. By 2012, India-centric IT service companies will represent 20% of the leading cloud aggregators in the market. Since this is largely an extension of the prior prediction, UC will be a natural application in these aggregated clouds. In addition, these service companies will ready to provide the UC customizations that will drive Communications Enabled Business Process (CEBP) adoption, including support resources as have already been seen in call center outsourcing.
3. By 2012, Facebook will become the hub for social networks integration and Web socialization. You have already read multiple posts on this topic at UCStrategies.com from our social networking expert, Blair Pleasant, and others. It is clear that Facebook is a communications platform, supplanting or supplementing e-mail, presence, instant messaging and some collaboration functions. It is very logical to see other communications flow through this community interface, such as eBay envisioned with their (perhaps premature, but still pertinent) purchase of Skype as an expansion of their community’s communications capabilities.
4. By 2014, most IT business cases will include carbon remediation costs. Of course, and many UC business cases already address this. Microsoft and Cisco have both published reports on the carbon footprint reductions from their UC offerings. There are many other enterprise cases studies to further document the green effect of UC, and it is reasonable to expect UC initiatives to be very high on the list of responses to Gartner’s prediction.
5. In 2012, 60% of a new PC’s total life greenhouse gas emissions will have occurred before the user first turns the machine on. While this seems distant from UC, in fact Gartner suggests that longer useful PC lifecycles via modular upgrades is one mitigation for this point. Since UC functions are becoming increasingly browser-based and even virtualized, it seems that UC will benefit from enterprise responses to this trend.
6. Internet marketing will be regulated by 2015, controlling more than $250 billion in Internet marketing spending worldwide. It seems that this prediction points towards marketing that will require authenticated relationships. The evolution and growing adoption of UC federation models could be a logical and effective model to address abuse by creation of authenticated communications within “walled gardens” of community members.
7. By 2014, more than three billion of the world’s adult population will be able to transact electronically via mobile and Internet technology. For years now, we have been commenting on both UCStrategies.com and NoJitter.com that UC will grow on the foundation of Internet connectivity, both fixed and mobile, far more than by association with an enterprise telephone number. Sure, phone numbers will still work, and will be accessible from this burgeoning user community. But more and more the communications will just be from one identity to another, using identities such as Facebook name, Skype account, or commercial community membership (think eBay, Amazon, credit card companies, cable companies, or any number of others).
8. By 2015, context will be as influential to mobile consumer services and relationships as search engines are to the Web. Well, heck, this one is a page out of our UC industry. We have been highlighting “rich presence” (using information about skills, knowledge, location, availability, roles, permissions, etc.) as the nexus of enterprise resource access, information and talent brokering, and many other uses for years now. A growth of context-based services and communications will drive and be driven by UC, for sure.
9. By 2013, mobile phones will overtake PCs as the most common Web access device worldwide. Yep. There’s no secret that mobility is a major component of UC as well as a driver of UC growth. Even in 2007, Nokia published data showing that worldwide landline voice minutes peaked in 2001 and that by 2007 total mobile network voice minutes passed the 50% mark, exceeding land line minutes for the first time. Put this together with UC capabilities and most of the other predictions here to see that the mobile (UC-capable) device is clearly the communications console of the future.
So, there’s a UC perspective on these Gartner 2010 predictions. What do you see in these predictions? And, how do these predictions relate to your personal view of Unified Communications? Please post your comments below.